CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR

• STRAIT OF HORMUZ EFFECTIVELY CLOSED: Around 20 million barrels of oil per day are unable to reach global markets.
• CURRENT IMPACT: This represents around 20% of global oil demand, creating a major supply shock.
• SUPPLY LOSS ACCUMULATING: Over the last 10 days, since the war began, nearly 200 million barrels of oil exports have been disrupted.

• THIS COMPARED TO THE WORLD'S STRATEGIC RESERVES:

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA): This equals roughly 17% of total IEA emergency oil stocks.

U.S.A. (SPR): Comparable to U.S. strategic reserves, the disruption equals about 50% of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

• OPEC PRODUCTION DOWN AROUND 24.5% FROM THE GULF REGION

SUMMARY OF OIL PRODUCTION CUTS SO FAR IN THE REGION:

5. SAUDI ARABIA: 2 to 2.5 million barrels a day of production cuts. 
5. IRAQ: 3.2 million barrels a day production cut. 
5. KUWAIT: 0.59 million barrels a day, but it may extend to a 1.09 million barrels a day production cut. 
5. U.A.E.: around 0.7 million barrels a day production cut.
5. BAHRAIN: Bahrain declared force majeure after the refinery attack, which was able to produce more than 200,000 barrels a day of oil.
5. TOTAL OIL PRODUCTION CUTS: around 7 million barrels a day of oil production cuts.

OPEC: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 24.5% OF TOTAL OPEC OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR. 

OPEC+: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 17% OF TOTAL OPEC+ OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR. 

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, OILPRICE.COM

PRICE ACTION: ANALYSTS’ OPINION

• BIG BANKS AND THEIR ESTIMATES IF THE CLOSURE OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT PERSISTS:

5. JP MORGAN: $120
5. BARCLAYS: $100-$150
5. GOLDMAN SACHS: $100
5. UBS: $120

Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• SUPPORT AREA: $80. After rising to its highest level since June 2022 ($119.40), crude oil prices have now found support around the $80 level or below. Since the war began, crude oil has surged about 77%, reaching prices not seen in almost four years and pushing the market firmly above $80. However, the price could also decline.

GRAPH (Weekly): November 2020 – March 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Crude Oil, March 11, 2026   
Current Price:    86

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used a 10:10 (GMT) 11/03/2026

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.