ALUMINUM weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

ALUMINUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Aluminum is widely used across multiple industries due to its lightweight, corrosion resistance, and recyclability. The construction sector is a major consumer (infrastructure, buildings), followed by transportation (automobiles, aircraft, ships) and packaging (cans, foils). It is also increasingly used in renewable energy technologies, such as solar panels and wind turbines, supporting long-term demand.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): China dominates global aluminum production with around 60% of the market, followed by India at roughly 6%, Russia with about 5%, Canada at 4%, and the United Arab Emirates with around 4% of total global output.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest aluminum consumer with over 55% of global demand, followed by the United States (~8%), India (~6%), Japan (~3%), and Germany (~3%).

GEOPOLITICS: THE MIDDLE EAST WAR BLOCKS ALUMINUM EXPORTS FROM THE REGION

• MAJOR MIDDLE EAST ALUMINUM EXPORTERS: United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman are the largest aluminum exporters from the region. Their supplies account for around 10% of total global production. They mainly export aluminum to Europe, U.S.A., Japan and South Korea.
• ENERGY PRICES RISE: Aluminum smelting requires huge amounts of electricity, which is often generated from natural gas or oil. If energy prices go up, then higher aluminum production costs could cause higher aluminum prices.
• THE STRAIT OF HORMUTZ IS STILL EFFECTIVELY CLOSED: Around 20% of total global oil supply and around 20%-25% of total Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) used to pass through the Strait of Hormutz each day. Now those numbers have gone down close to zero as the Hormutz Strait remained closed and made exporting countries in the region unable to export. 

NEWS (MARCH 15): BAHRAIN IS STARTING TO SHUT DOWN ALUMINUM PRODUCTION

• Aluminum Bahrain (Alba), which runs the world’s largest single-site aluminum smelter, has begun a phased production shutdown to conserve raw-material supplies. 
• Alba produces about 1.6 million tons of aluminum per year, making it one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world. 
• This equals around 2–3% of total global aluminum production. 
• Within the Gulf region, Alba accounts for roughly 15–20% of aluminum output, alongside producers in United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. 

SUPPLY SIDE: DEFICIT EXPECTATIONS

• SYPPLY DEFICIT: The market was in a structural deficit of roughly 600,000 tons, with global inventories been falling since 2024.
• CHINA PRODUCTION CAPACITY REMAINS LIMITED: China's production is operating near its 45-million-ton capacity cap, limiting the ability to increase supply to fill global gaps.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION:

• ALUMINUM PRICE HIT ITS HIGHEST RATE SINCE MARCH 2022 ($3,538.75). Aluminum currently trades around $3,190, and if it fully recovers to its previous all-time high ($3,966), it could see an upside of around 24%. However, the price could also decline.
• LONG-TERM TREND IS UP. The overall trend of aluminum is up (black trendline), with the trend accelerating since mid – September of 2025.
• SUPPORT AREA: $3,200 – $3,100. Aluminum prices have found a support zone in the range between $3,200 and $3,100. However, it could also decline.

GRAPH (Daily): September 2025 – March 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

ALUMINUM, March 24, 2026
Current Price:  3,190

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1.   1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2.   Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:00 (GMT) 24/03/2026  

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.