CRUDE OIL
March 11, 2026
Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR
- STRAIT OF HORMUZ EFFECTIVELY CLOSED: Around 20 million barrels of oil per day are unable to reach global markets.
- CURRENT IMPACT: This represents around 20% of global oil demand, creating a major supply shock.
- SUPPLY LOSS ACCUMULATING: Over the last 10 days, since the war began, nearly 200 million barrels of oil exports have been disrupted.
- THIS COMPARED TO THE WORLD'S STRATEGIC RESERVES:
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA): This equals roughly 17% of total IEA emergency oil stocks.
U.S.A. (SPR): Comparable to U.S. strategic reserves, the disruption equals about 50% of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
- OPEC PRODUCTION DOWN AROUND 24.5% FROM THE GULF REGION
SUMMARY OF OIL PRODUCTION CUTS SO FAR IN THE REGION:
- SAUDI ARABIA: 2 to 2.5 million barrels a day of production cuts.
- IRAQ: 3.2 million barrels a day production cut.
- KUWAIT: 0.59 million barrels a day, but it may extend to a 1.09 million barrels a day production cut.
- U.A.E.: around 0.7 million barrels a day production cut.
- BAHRAIN: Bahrain declared force majeure after the refinery attack, which was able to produce more than 200,000 barrels a day of oil.
- TOTAL OIL PRODUCTION CUTS: around 7 million barrels a day of oil production cuts.
OPEC: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 24.5% OF TOTAL OPEC OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR.
OPEC+: THE CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUTS ARE EQUAL TO AROUND 17% OF TOTAL OPEC+ OIL PRODUCTION BEFORE THE WAR.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, OILPRICE.COM
PRICE ACTION: ANALYSTS’ OPINION
- BIG BANKS AND THEIR ESTIMATES IF THE CLOSURE OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT PERSISTS:
- JP MORGAN: $120
- BARCLAYS: $100-$150
- GOLDMAN SACHS: $100
- UBS: $120
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- SUPPORT AREA: $80. After rising to its highest level since June 2022 ($119.40), crude oil prices have now found support around the $80 level or below. Since the war began, crude oil has surged about 77%, reaching prices not seen in almost four years and pushing the market firmly above $80. However, the price could also decline.
GRAPH (Weekly): November 2020 – March 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, March 11, 2026
Current Price: 86
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
120 |
|
|
110 |
|
|
100 |
|
|
74 |
|
|
73 |
|
|
72 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
34,000 |
24,000 |
14,000 |
-12,000 |
-13,000 |
-14,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
29,310 |
20,690 |
12,069 |
-10,345 |
-11,207 |
-12,069 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
25,275 |
17,841 |
10,407 |
-8,921 |
-9,664 |
-10,407 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
46,138 |
32,568 |
18,998 |
-16,284 |
-17,641 |
-18,998 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used a 10:10 (GMT) 11/03/2026
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.
Crude Oil (CL)
+0.02%
Trade Info
- Leverage:1 : 10
- Margin:10%
- Premium Buy:-36.9
- Premium Sell:-2.13
Open Economic calendar
97.49
Day range
113.905
64%
Sell
Market sentiment
Buy
36%
