Weekly Special Report: COCOA (#COCOA)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION

• BREAKING (MARCH 2, 2026): COCOA PRICES TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL 2023 ($2,834). The price has since traded above those levels.
• SUPPORT AREA: $3,000 - $2,500. After falling below the $4,000–$3,500 range, cocoa prices are now testing their next strong psychological support area between $3,000 and $2,500, which has not been challenged since April 2023.
• ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $3,207, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 302%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): August 2025 - March 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

FUNDAMENTALS:

• SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (40% of the world’s total) and Ghana (18% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (11.4%), Ecuador (6,7%), and Brazil (5.2%).
• DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (21%), Africa (22%), and the Americas (North and South) (18%).  

GEOPOLITICS: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

• IMPACT OF WAR ON COCOA: The conflict is impacting cocoa through indirect channels, including fertilizer shortages in West Africa, rising energy and shipping costs, and disrupted trade routes. This is tightening global supply and increasing market volatility. Since the war began, cocoa prices have risen by a as much as 12%, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and shifting supply expectations.

NEWS:

• EASTER DEMAND BOOST (APRIL 5): Chocolate demand is set to rise as Easter, one of the biggest chocolate-consuming holidays worldwide, approaches. Americans are expected to enjoy over 73 million pounds of chocolate, while in the UK, more than 80 million Easter eggs are sold annually. U.S. Easter chocolate sales surpass $5 billion each year, with 92% of celebrants including chocolate in their festivities.
• BREAKING (FEBRUARY 2): COCOA SWOLLEN SHOOT VIRUS. Reported by non-profit Enveritas and Reuters, the disease is rapidly worsening in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, with over 41% of farms now infected, up from 33% two years ago. The virus, which reduces yields and eventually kills trees, is estimated to be putting around 15% of the country’s total cocoa supply at risk.

COCOA (#COCOA) March 31, 2026
Current Price:  3,207

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹ 

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 10 units 
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 31/03/2026 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.