Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Weekly Special Report: Palladium
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is primarily used in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid vehicles, where it helps reduce harmful emissions. Automotive demand is forecast at 7.829 million ounces in 2026, representing approximately 85% of total palladium demand.
- HYBRID VEHICLES SUPPORT DEMAND. While battery electric vehicles remain a long-term challenge for palladium demand, stronger hybrid vehicle sales continue to support the use of palladium-based catalytic converters. Slower-than-expected EV adoption could keep automotive demand more resilient than previously anticipated.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia remains the largest source of global primary palladium supply. According to Johnson Matthey, Russian supply is forecast to decline from 2.950 million ounces in 2025 to 2.450 million ounces in 2026, a fall of approximately 17%. South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer, with 31%, while Europe and North America (including the USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%. Nornickel is developing additional palladium applications in areas including electrochemistry, water treatment and lithium-sulphur batteries, to create new annual demand of approximately 1.7 million ounces by 2030.
PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED
- SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has indicated that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
- THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HAS ISSUED FINAL AFFIRMATIVE DETERMINATIONS ON RUSSIAN UNWROUGHT PALLADIUM (April 28, 2026), including a 109.1% countervailing duty and a 132.83% anti-dumping duty, subject to the final injury determination process. If the duties are implemented, Russian palladium imports into the United States could become significantly more expensive, potentially tightening U.S. availability and increasing market volatility.
- MARKET DEFICIT (2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, expects the palladium market to remain in deficit in 2026. Overall, the market is projected to post a deficit of around 100,000 ounces in 2026, following last year’s deficit of approximately 200,000 ounces, according to Nornickel estimates.
EVENTS:
- SUNDAY, MAY 31 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (MAY). Manufacturing Production PMI provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected reading would confirm growth in China’s manufacturing and automotive sectors, likely supporting palladium prices through increased demand for catalytic converters and industrial applications. (Previous: 50.3)
- FRIDAY, JUNE 5 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MAY). Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A weaker-than-expected payroll report and a rising unemployment rate would highlight a softening U.S. labor market, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- MID -TERM TREND IS UP. Since May 2025, palladium has remained in a solid uptrend (Green line). Since November 2025, the price has rebounded several times from the strong support area, with the most recent rebound occurring in mid-May.
- SUPPORT AREA: $1200 – $1350. This zone represents its next support area for Palladium prices.
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022). Palladium price has traded around $1,405, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 143%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Daily): May 2025 - May 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Palladium, May 27, 2026
Current Price: 1,405
Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot1
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PALLADIUM
|
|
Pivot Points
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Resistance 3
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Resistance 2
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Resistance 1
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Support 1
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Support 2
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Support 3
|
|
Profit or loss in $
|
44,500
|
24,500
|
14,500
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-10,500
|
-15,500
|
-20,500
|
|
Profit or loss in €²
|
38,248
|
21,058
|
12,463
|
-9,025
|
-13,322
|
-17,620
|
|
Profit or loss in £²
|
33,130
|
18,240
|
10,795
|
-7,817
|
-11,540
|
-15,262
|
|
Profit or loss in C$²
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61,579
|
33,903
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20,065
|
-14,530
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-21,449
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-28,368
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- The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT+1) 27/05/2026.
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