Weekly Special Report: EUR/USD

GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST

• U.S. – IRAN CEASEFIRE STILL INTACT: U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED A CEASEFIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT, WHICH WAS LATER EXTENDED INDEFINITELY WHILE NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE. Despite the latest rise in tensions in the Middle East, the ceasefire remains in effect while both sides continue negotiations. President Trump said talks are progressing and that a deal could be reached within the next two weeks. This ongoing diplomatic momentum may reduce safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and support the euro, helping EUR/USD move higher.   

EVENTS:

• FRIDAY, JUNE 5 AT 10:00 GMT+1: EUROZONE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). The Eurozone's growth data provides insight into the strength of its economy. This will be the final reading, while the first reading showed an increase of 1.2%.
• FRIDAY, JUNE 5 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MAY). Markets will closely watch the U.S. labor market data for further signals on the strength of the economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The unemployment rate has remained elevated at around 4.3% in recent months, and any softer labor market data could increase expectations of a looser monetary policy, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar.
• WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (MAY). US inflation rose to 3.8% in April, hitting its highest level in two years. May data will be released on Wednesday (June 10), and investors will be eager to see whether the trend has slowed or accelerated. US inflation has risen from 2.4% in February to 3.8% in April. If a slowdown is reported, the US dollar could come under downward pressure.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB):

• THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT 13:15 GMT+1: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB rate decision will be followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 13:45 GMT+1. The ECB’s main rate currently stands at 2.15%, but rising Eurozone inflation has increased expectations that the central bank could raise rates at least twice by the end of 2026. Data in May showed Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2%, its highest level since September 2023. The first hike is expected in June, potentially lifting the rate to 2.40%. Higher rates would generally support the euro.

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE

• WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The announcement will be followed by a press conference from the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Trump and recently confirmed by Congress. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• UPTREND: The recent decline in EUR/USD appears to be more of a correction than a trend reversal. The pair remains more than 1.5% higher over the past two months, after moving from around 1.14 in early March and spending most of May above the 1.16 level, which keeps the broader outlook positive.
• SUPPORT AREA: $1.1600 – $1.1500. The EUR/USD has maintained a strong support area between 1.16 and 1.15 since June 2025. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.

GRAPH (Daily): May 2025– June 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

EURUSD, June 2, 2026
Current Price:  1.1640

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:50 (GMT+1) 02/06/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit