Weekly Special Report: COCOA (#COCOA)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION

• SUPPORT AREA: $3,500 - $3,000. Cocoa prices have risen above the $3,500–$3,000 range, which acted as a consolidation and support area between February and May 2026.
• UPTREND: The daily chart below shows that cocoa prices have bounced off the $3,000–$3,500 support region, rising by around 52% over the past month and testing their highest level in more than three months ($4,529), confirming that a near-term uptrend is in place.
• ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $4,490, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 187%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): September 2025 - May 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

FUNDAMENTALS:

• SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (40% of the world’s total) and Ghana (18% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (11.4%), Ecuador (6,7%), and Brazil (5.2%).
• DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (21%), Africa (22%), and the Americas (North and South) (18%).  

GEOPOLITICS: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

• IMPACT OF WAR ON COCOA: The conflict is impacting cocoa through indirect channels, including fertilizer shortages in West Africa, rising energy and shipping costs, and disrupted trade routes. This is tightening global supply and increasing market volatility. Since the war began, cocoa prices have risen by as much as 58%, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and shifting supply expectations.

NEWS:

• CHOCOLATE DEMAND REMAINS STEADY AND PRICE SUPPORTIVE. Signs that consumer demand for chocolate is holding up are a positive factor for cocoa prices.  Better-than-expected earnings results from top chocolate makers Hershey and Mondelez International show consumer chocolate demand remains steady despite high prices.  
• BREAKING (MAY 2026): FERTILIZER SHORTAGES RAISED WORRIES 2026/27 SUPPLY OUTLOOK (MAY 2026). Analysts warn that limited fertilizer access and cash constraints for farmers in top cocoa-growing regions may further reduce production prospects for the upcoming season.

EVENTS:

• EVENT (EXPECTED: LATE MAY – EARLY JUNE): INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY REPORT (BULLETIN). The ICCO February 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reported a revised up to 75,000-tonne surplus, up from the previously expected 49,000 tonnes. Global production is estimated at 4.728 million tonnes, with grindings at 4.606 million tonnes.

COCOA (#COCOA) May 8, 2026
Current Price:  4,490

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹ 

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 10 units 
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 08/05/2026 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.