Weekly Special Report: Gold

GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR

• BREAKING (MAY 18): IRAN – USA NEGOTIATIONS HAVE STALLED, BUT IRAN SUBMITS REVISED 14-POINT PROPOSAL TO THE U.S. THROUGH PAKISTAN. Iran has submitted a revised 14-point proposal to the United States through Pakistani mediators after making amendments to a previous version. The new proposal reportedly focuses on negotiations to end the war and confidence-building measures from the American side, while diplomatic efforts between both countries continue.

Source: Reuters, Tasnim News Agency

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, MAY 20 AT 19:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEREAL RESERVE (FOMC) MEETING MINUTES. Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for signals on the outlook for interest rates and the broader economy amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Although markets currently expect rates to remain elevated for longer, any signs of a more dovish stance or concerns about economic growth could weaken the U.S. dollar and support gold prices.
• THURSDAY, MAY 21 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. Investors will monitor weekly unemployment claims for further signs of labor market weakness. Higher than expected claims could increase concerns about the economy and support gold prices.
• THURSDAY, MAY 21 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (MAY). This regional manufacturing activity indicator will be closely watched for signs of economic strength or weakness in the U.S. economy. A weaker than expected reading could reinforce concerns about slowing growth, potentially weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices.
• THURSDAY, MAY 21 AT 14:45 GMT+1: U.S. S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (MAY PRELIMINARY). This manufacturing activity survey will provide additional insight into U.S. economic conditions. A weaker reading could increase concerns about slowing economic growth and raise expectations of a looser monetary policy, potentially supporting gold prices.

PRICE ACTION

• GOLD PRICE HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ON JANUARY 28, 2026 ($5,597.41). Gold price currently trades at around $4,535, and if it fully recovers to its previous all-time high, it could see an upside of around $1,062.41. However, the price could also decline.
• FORECAST: Wells Fargo forecasts $6,100; Bank of America forecasts $6,000; Goldman Sachs forecasts $5,400; Morgan Stanley forecasts $5,700; UBS forecasts $6,200; JPMorgan forecasts $6,000; Deutsche Bank forecasts $6,000; Societe General forecasts $6,000.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• SUPPORT AREA: $4,500 - $4,400. Gold recently pulled back toward the key support zone between $4,500 and $4,400, where the rising long-term uptrend line and the 200-Day Moving Average are also converging. This area could act as a short-term support. However, a sustained break below this range may signal further downside risk.
• LONG-TERM UPTREND REMAINS INTACT: Gold continues to trade within a broader long-term uptrend supported by the rising black trendline. Despite recent volatility, prices remain up around 5% since the beginning of 2026 and approximately 73% since January 2025, highlighting the strength of the longer-term bullish trend.

GRAPH (Daily): February 2025 – May 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Gold, May 18, 2026
Current Price:  4,535

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:30 (GMT+1) 18/05/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.