Weekly Special Report: EUR/USD

GEOPOLIITICS: MIDDLE EAST

• BREAKING (APRIL 8): U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED A CEASEFIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT, WHICH WAS LATER EXTENDED INDEFINITELY. The warring sides continued to exchange proposals on how to end the war, signaling that negotiations could potentially lead to a peace deal. The sentiment could put negative pressure on the safe-haven US dollar, while the EUR/USD currency pair may see some support. 

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, MAY 20 AT 10:00 GMT+1: EUROZONE INFLATION (CPI) (APRIL). This is the second reading of this report. The preliminary report showed a rise from 2.6% to 3.0% (its highest since September 2023), which was in line with expectations. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for the EUR, as it could increase the chances of a more aggressive interest rate hike cycle by the European Central Bank (ECB).
• THURSDAY, MAY 21 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (MAY). The Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A lower-than-expected reading could be negative for the US Dollar.
• FRIDAY, MAY 22 AT 7:00 GMT+1: GERMANY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q1). Germany’s growth data will provide insight into the strength of Europe’s largest economy.
• FRIDAY, MAY 29 AT 13:00 GMT+1: GERMAN INFLATION (CPI) (MAY). Germany’s monthly inflation reading will be closely watched as inflation concerns remain present. However, a higher print could increase pressure on the ECB (European Central Bank), supporting the EUR currency.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB):

• WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10 AT 13:15 GMT+1: ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB rate decision will be followed by a press conference hosted by President Lagarde at 13:45 GMT+1. The ECB’s main rate currently stands at 2.15%. However, due to rapidly rising inflation in the Eurozone, the ECB is now expected to raise rates at least two times by the end of 2026. The first interest rate hike after a long period is expected to take place in June, pushing the current rate from 2.15% to 2.40%. Higher interest rates tend to provide positive support to the local currency, the Euro.   

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• UPTREND: Despite the recent pullback in price, the EUR/USD remains in an uptrend, rising by more than 1.5% over the past two months. The pair traded near 1.14 in early March, while spending most of its time above 1.16 in May. However, it could also decline.
• SUPPORT AREA: $1.1600 – $1.1500. The EUR/USD has maintained a strong support area between 1.16 and 1.15 since June 2025. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.

GRAPH (Daily): June 2025– May 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

EURUSD, May 19, 2026
Current Price:   1.1620

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:40 (GMT+1) 19/05/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit