Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Weekly Special Report: Palladium
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is primarily used in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid vehicles, where it helps reduce harmful emissions. Automotive demand is forecast at 7.829 million ounces in 2026, representing approximately 85% of total palladium demand.
- HYBRID VEHICLES SUPPORT DEMAND. While battery electric vehicles remain a long-term challenge for palladium demand, stronger hybrid vehicle sales continue to support the use of palladium-based catalytic converters. Slower-than-expected EV adoption could keep automotive demand more resilient than previously anticipated.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia remains the largest source of global primary palladium supply. According to Johnson Matthey, Russian supply is forecast to decline from 2.950 million ounces in 2025 to 2.450 million ounces in 2026, a fall of approximately 17%. South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer, with 31%, while Europe and North America (including the USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%. Nornickel is developing additional palladium applications in areas including electrochemistry, water treatment and lithium-sulphur batteries, to create new annual demand of approximately 1.7 million ounces by 2030.
PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED
- SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has indicated that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
- MARKET DEFICIT (2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, expects the palladium market to remain in deficit in 2026. Overall, the market is projected to post a deficit of around 100,000 ounces in 2026, following last year’s deficit of approximately 200,000 ounces, according to Nornickel estimates.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JUNE 9 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA TRADE BALANCE (MAY). A stronger-than-expected trade surplus, particularly if driven by resilient industrial demand and imports, could reinforce expectations of steady Chinese palladium demand, and it could support palladium prices.
- WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA INFLATION DATA (CPI) (MAY). A stronger CPI reading would point to improving domestic demand in China, supporting vehicle sales and industrial activity, which would be positive for palladium prices.
- WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (MAY). A softer-than-expected CPI could increase rate cut expectations and support industrial metals demand, potentially boosting palladium prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- MID-TERM UPTREND. Since March 2025, palladium price has remained in an uptrend (Green line).
- SUPPORT AREA: $1200 – $1300. This zone represents its next support area for Palladium prices. Since November 2025, the price has rebounded several times from the strong support area, with the most recent rebound occurring in March.
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022). Palladium price has traded around $1,325, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 157%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Daily): March 2025 - June 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Palladium, June 05, 2026
Current Price: 1,325
Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot1
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PALLADIUM
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Pivot Points
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Resistance 3
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Resistance 2
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Resistance 1
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Support 1
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Support 2
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Support 3
|
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Profit or loss in $
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42,500
|
22,500
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12,500
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-9,500
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-14,500
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-19,500
|
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Profit or loss in €²
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36,511
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19,329
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10,738
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-8,161
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-12,457
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-16,752
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Profit or loss in £²
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31,538
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16,696
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9,276
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-7,050
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-10,760
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-14,470
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Profit or loss in C$²
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58,952
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31,210
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17,339
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-13,178
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-20,113
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-27,049
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- The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:30 (GMT+1) 05/06/2026
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