Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Weekly Special Report: ALIBABA (#ALIBABA)
ALIBABA: ABOUT THE COMPANY
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is a leading global technology company specializing in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital services. Its platforms include Taobao, Tmall, Alibaba.com, AliExpress, Lazada, Cainiao, and Alibaba Cloud, serving customers worldwide. The company focuses on user growth in e-commerce and is investing heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure to drive long-term growth.
- ALIBABA STOCK is included in several major global indices, most notably China’s main index, the Hang Seng (HK50), as well as the Hang Seng TECH Index.
E-COMMERCE: THE INDUSTRY
- THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL $6.9 TRILLIONS IN 2026. The global e-commerce market is estimated at around $6.8–$6.9 trillion in 2026, up from roughly $6.4–$6.5 trillion in 2025, reflecting continued expansion of online retail worldwide.
- E-COMMERCE SALES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW 7-10% IN 2026. Growth remains strong, with global e-commerce sales expanding at approximately 7–10% annually, highlighting sustained consumer demand for online shopping and digital channels.
- BY 2027, 23% OF RETAIL PURCHASES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ONLINE. E-commerce now represents roughly 21–22.5% of global retail sales, and is expected to approach 23% by 2027–2028, with total market value projected to exceed $7.8–$8.0 trillion within that timeframe.
- E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY): China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 20.1%, UK with 3.4% and Japan with 3.3%. Rest of the world covers 20.7%.
- E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY): Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 25%, while Amazon took up 7.8% of the global e-commerce market. JD.com claimed 2.1% of the market.
Source: Shopify, globenewswire.com, mordorintelligence.com
GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR
- BREAKING (APRIL 14): U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID TALKS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN COULD RESUME WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (APRIL 15 – APRIL 16). Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (April 14). Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week.
- BREAKING (APRIL 8): U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED A TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST WAR. The stock markets rose in value after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The optimism could provide further support to the global stock market, especially if the talks show progress.
- ALIBABA STOCK PRICE ACTION: The Alibaba stock traded on average around $161 before the war began on February 27. During the war, the stock fell at one point to $117.52, marking a total decrease of 27%. However, as optimism has recently returned, the stock has recovered by around 11%, and if a full recovery to pre-war levels (average of $161) occurs, the stock price could see an additional upside of around 23%. Although, the stock price could also decline.
ALIBABA: EVENTS
- EVENT (EXPECTED: THURDSAY, MAY 14, PREMARKET): Q1 EARNINGS REPORT. Alibaba is expected to print $36.11 billion in revenue. This would be an increase of around 11% from the same period last year ($32.5 billion). Alibaba is expected to print $2.24 billion in net income.
EXPECTED FORWARD GUIDANCE (Q2): The company is expected to say it will print $40.3 billion for Q2 of 2026, which would mark an increase of around 18% year on year.
ALIBABA: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION
- SUPPORT AREA: $120. After the recent drop, Alibaba’s stock price has found support in the $120 level.
- ALIBABA STOCK PRICE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH ON OCTOBER, 2020: $319.08. The current price of Alibaba stands at around $131, and if a recovery to its all-time highs happens, a potential upside of around 143% could be achieved. However, it could also decline.
- FORECAST (Source: Bloomberg Terminal): Citigroup forecasts $205; Deutsche Bank forecasts $195; JPMorgan forecasts $200; Barclays forecasts $186; Goldman Sachs forecasts $186.
#ALIBABA, April 15, 2026
Current Price: 131
Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot1
|
ALIBABA
|
|
Pivot Points
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Resistance 3
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Resistance 2
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Resistance 1
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Support 1
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Support 2
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Support 3
|
|
Profit or loss in $
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49,000
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30,000
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13,000
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-11,000
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-14,000
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-16,000
|
|
Profit or loss in €2
|
41,573
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25,453
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11,030
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-9,333
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-11,878
|
-13,575
|
|
Profit or loss in £2
|
36,142
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22,127
|
9,589
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-8,113
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-10,326
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-11,801
|
|
Profit or loss in C$2
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67,460
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41,302
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17,897
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-15,144
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-19,274
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-22,028
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- The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 15:00 (GMT+1) 15/04/2026
You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.