Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Weekly Special Report: CRUDE OIL
GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR
- EVENT (MONDAY, MAY 4): "PROJECT FREEDOM”: U.S. NAVY WILL HELP SHIPS FROM FOREIGN COUNTRIES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ STARTING MONDAY (MAY 4), AND IF IRAN DISRUPTS THE PROCESS, THE U.S. WILL USE FORCE. U.S. Central Command said it would support the effort with 15,000 U.S. military personnel, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, along with warships and drones. The operation aims to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the strait, CENTCOM said in a statement. Trump threatened that any interference with the U.S. operation would be dealt with forcefully.
- RISK OF ESCALATION RISES AS IRAN AND THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND IN AN ATTEMPT TO RETAIN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT. The head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, warned that U.S. intervention in the waterway will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
- BREAKING (MAY 4): TANKER HIT NEAR THE HORMUZ STRAIT AND U.A.E. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said a tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait. UKMTO said all crew were reported safe in the incident, which occurred 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates.
- BREAKING (MAY 4): U.S.A. REJECTS THE LATEST PROPOSAL BY IRAN? On Saturday (May 2), Trump said he had yet to review the exact wording of the Iranian peace proposal but was likely to reject it. “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable, as they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to humanity and the world over the last 47 years,” he wrote on social media.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM, Fox News
HORMUZ STRAIT NEWS:
- U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE HAS INTERCEPTED AT LEAST 42 IRAN-RELATED VESSELS. Trump has ordered an indefinite blockade of Iran. Trump said the blockade will continue to pressure Iran into capitulation on the nuclear issue. U.S. Central Command revealed that American forces have redirected the 42nd commercial vessel that had tried to breach the U.S. blockade of Iranian shores. “Right now, there are 41 tankers with 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime can’t sell,” CENTCOM wrote. “That’s an estimated $6 billion-plus from which Iran’s leadership cannot financially benefit.”
- STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS EFFECTIVELY CLOSED DESPITE THE RECENT CEASEFIRE DEAL BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN: Around 20 million barrels of oil per day are unable to reach global markets.
- CURRENT IMPACT: This represents ~20% of global oil demand, creating a major supply shock.
- SUPPLY LOSS ACCUMULATING: Over the last 65 days, since the war began, nearly 800 million barrels of oil exports have been disrupted.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION
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- SUPPORT AREA: $100–$90. Crude oil prices have returned above $100, finding support in the $90–$100 region. Earlier in March, crude oil prices rose to their highest levels since June 2022, reaching $119.40.
- UPTREND: Since the war began, crude oil surged by about 77% at one point, reaching levels not seen in nearly four years and pushing the market above the $100–$90 region.
- BREAKING (MARCH 9): CRUDE OIL PRICE HIT ITS HIGHEST RATE SINCE JUNE 2022 ($119.40). Crude oil price was last trading around $103.40, and if a full recovery to $119.40 follows, then crude oil prices may see an upside of around 15%. However, prices may decline as well.
- FORECAST (Source: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg): JPMorgan forecasts $120. Goldmans Sachs forecasts $140. Morgan Stanley forecasts $110. Citigroup forecasts between $110 and $120.

GRAPH (Daily): February 2026 – May 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, May 4, 2026
Current Price: 103.40
Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot1
|
CRUDE OIL
|
|
Pivot Points
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Resistance 3
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Resistance 2
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Resistance 1
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Support 1
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Support 2
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Support 3
|
|
Profit or loss in $
|
16,600
|
11,600
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6,600
|
-6,400
|
-9,400
|
-13,400
|
|
Profit or loss in €2
|
14,173
|
9,904
|
5,635
|
-5,464
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-8,025
|
-11,441
|
|
Profit or loss in £2
|
12,242
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8,555
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4,867
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-4,720
|
-6,932
|
-9,882
|
|
Profit or loss in C$2
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22,581
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15,780
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8,978
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-8,706
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-12,787
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-18,228
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- The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:15 (GMT+1) 04/05/2026
You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.