Weekly Special Report: Palladium

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

GEOPOLITICS: THE MIDDLE EAST WAR

• BREAKING (MAY 3): “PROJECT FREEDOM”. According to Reuters, the United States announced that the U.S. Navy will begin helping ships from foreign countries pass through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, May 4, in an operation aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Washington warned that if Iran disrupts the process, the U.S. is prepared to use force. The risk of escalation is rising, as Iran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards could respond in an effort to retain control over the Strait, turning Hormuz into the main flashpoint between Tehran and Washington.   

PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has indicated that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
• MARKET DEFICIT (2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, says the palladium market could remain in deficit in 2026. The market is projected to post a shortfall of around 100,000 ounces, following an estimated deficit of approximately 200,000 ounces last year, according to Nornickel.

EVENTS:

• SATURDAY, MAY 9 AT 04:00 GMT+1: CHINA TRADE BALANCE (APRIL): A stronger-than-expected trade surplus, particularly if driven by resilient industrial demand and imports, could reinforce expectations of steady Chinese palladium demand, and it could support palladium prices.
• FRIDAY, MAY 8 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APRIL). Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A weaker-than-expected payroll report and a rising unemployment rate would highlight a softening U.S. labor market, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• SHORT -TERM TREND IS UP. Since November 2025, palladium has rebounded several times from the strong support area. In late March, another rebound occurred, and since then, the price has remained in an uptrend (green trendline).However the price could decline.
• SUPPORT AREA: $1350 – $1450. This zone could represents its next support area for Palladium prices.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022). Palladium price has traded around $1,485, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 130%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Daily): November 2025 - May 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, May 04, 2026
Current Price:  1,485

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:20 (GMT+1) 04/05/2026

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.