Weekly Special Report: ALIBABA (#ALIBABA)

ALIBABA: ABOUT THE COMPANY

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is a leading global technology company specializing in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital services. Its platforms include Taobao, Tmall, Alibaba.com, AliExpress, Lazada, Cainiao, and Alibaba Cloud, serving customers worldwide. The company focuses on user growth in e-commerce and is investing heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure to drive long-term growth.
• ALIBABA STOCK is included in several major global indices, most notably China’s main index, the Hang Seng (HK50), as well as the Hang Seng TECH Index.

E-COMMERCE: THE INDUSTRY

• THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL $6.9 TRILLIONS IN 2026. The global e-commerce market is estimated at around $6.8–$6.9 trillion in 2026, up from roughly $6.4–$6.5 trillion in 2025, reflecting the continued expansion of online retail worldwide.
• BY 2027, 23% OF RETAIL PURCHASES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ONLINE. E-commerce now represents roughly 21–22.5% of global retail sales, and is expected to approach 23% by 2027–2028, with total market value projected to exceed $7.8–$8.0 trillion within that timeframe.
• E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY): China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, the USA with 20.1%, the UK with 3.4%, and Japan with 3.3%. The rest of the world covers 20.7%.
• E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY): Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 25%, while Amazon took up 7.8% of the global e-commerce market. JD.com claimed 2.1% of the market.

Source: Shopify, globenewswire.com, mordorintelligence.com

ALIBABA: EVENTS

• EVENT (CONFIRMED: WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, PREMARKET): Q1 EARNINGS REPORT. Alibaba is expected to print $36.11 billion in revenue. This would be an increase of around 11% from the same period last year ($32.5 billion). Alibaba is expected to print $2.24 billion in net income.

EXPECTED FORWARD GUIDANCE (Q2): The company is expected to say it will print $40.3 billion for Q2 of 2026, which would mark an increase of around 18% year on year.

Source: Bloomberg Terminal

GEOPOLITICS: U.S. – CHINA SUMMIT

• EVENT (MAY 14 – MAY 15): U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP TO VISIT CHINA AND MEET PRESIDENT XI. The rare in-person meeting, already once delayed due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, is now scheduled for May 14–15, according to the White House. Last time the two leaders met in person (Busan, October 2025), the meeting was described as productive and positive, resulting in a partial trade truce and progress on tariffs.

Source: White House, CNN, Reuters

GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST WAR

• BREAKING (MAY 6): U.S.A. AND IRAN DEAL REPORTEDLY MOVING CLOSER. Reports indicate the U.S. and Iran are working on a potential 14-point framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and easing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks over the last 24 hours had been “very good” and that a deal was “very possible,” with Iran expected to respond in the coming days. Earlier, Trump also announced the temporary suspension of “Project Freedom,” the U.S. operation supporting ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in negotiations, although the U.S. blockade remains in place.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, CNN, Wall Street Journal

ALIBABA: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION

• SUPPORT AREA: $120. After the recent drop, Alibaba’s stock price has found support at the $120 level.
• ALIBABA STOCK PRICE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN OCTOBER 2020: $319.08. The current price of Alibaba stands at around $141, and if a recovery to its all-time highs happens, a potential upside of around 126% could be achieved. However, it could also decline.
• FORECAST (Source: Bloomberg Terminal): Citigroup forecasts $205; Deutsche Bank forecasts $195; JPMorgan forecasts $200; Barclays forecasts $186; Goldman Sachs forecasts $186. 

#ALIBABA, May 7, 2026
Current Price:  141

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 1000 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:30 (GMT+1) 07/05/2026

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